The concept of congestion pricing has been polarizing for urban centres worldwide, and Toronto is no exception. Recent moves by New York City to introduce congestion charges for vehicles entering Manhattan below 60th Street have sparked renewed interest in the policy’s potential to reduce traffic, generate revenue, and improve public transit. The early days of New York’s program have seen commuters marveling at on-time buses and reduced congestion on bridges—but how might Toronto fare with a similar initiative?
Revisiting Toronto’s missed opportunity
In 2017, Toronto briefly flirted with the idea of road tolls on the Gardiner Expressway and Don Valley Parkway, only to see the proposal vetoed by then-Premier Kathleen Wynne. At the time, Mayor John Tory expressed frustration, labeling the province’s decision paternalistic and short-sighted. The veto was accompanied by promises of increased gas tax revenues for municipalities, but the broader vision of congestion pricing as a transformative policy for Toronto was left unrealized.
The political hurdles were significant, and the opposition loud. However, since urban centres around the world have implement such measures—from Stockholm to London to Singapore—the evidence of their effectiveness in reducing traffic and emissions has been mounting. With New York City now stepping into the fray, it’s worth asking: What kind of political will and public engagement would it take for Toronto to reconsider congestion pricing? And, crucially, what might the numbers tell us about its potential impact here?
Defining a Toronto congestion zone
One of the open questions in Toronto’s context is the geographic delineation of the congestion zone. New York City’s boundary—Manhattan below 60th Street—is relatively straightforward due to the borough’s unique geography. Toronto’s downtown core is less clearly defined, but a plausible boundary might include areas south of St. Clair Ave, east of the Humber River, and west of the Don River. This zone would capture major employment hubs and high-traffic areas, while aligning with existing transit corridors like the TTC subway and streetcar network.
Estimating Toronto’s congestion charge revenue
The 2022 Transportation Tomorrow Survey (TTS) provides a wealth of data on travel patterns in Toronto, including how many people drive to and from different neighbourhoods. We queried this data and estimated that, on an average weekday, 225,000-275,000 vehicles travel into the congestion zone shown in the map above.
If we take this data and apply a congestion charge—say, $9 per vehicle, similar to New York’s rate—we can start to build a back-of-the-envelope estimate of potential revenue for the City of Toronto.
For instance, even at the low estimate of 225,000 vehicles entering central Toronto daily, a $9 charge would generate $2.025 million per day. Over the course of a year (assuming 250 working days), that equates to over $500 million in annual revenue.
Note that this is an estimate, based on the TTS, which is a 5% sample. Our estimate also does not account for behavioural changes, such as commuters shifting to public transit, cycling, or telecommuting, which could reduce the total number of vehicles subject to the charge. But on the other hand, it also does not account for weekend travel nor vehicles that travel through, but do not stop within, the congestion zone.
Overall, even a conservative estimate suggests substantial revenue—funds that could be reinvested in public transit improvements, cycling infrastructure, and pedestrian-friendly streets.
Lessons from New York City
New York’s experience offers valuable insights for Toronto. Their approach was rooted in prioritizing equity and sustainability. The congestion charge doesn’t just target private vehicles; it’s part of a broader vision to reclaim streets for people. Public transit improvements, pedestrian-focused streetscapes, and safe cycling infrastructure accompany the fee, creating a more inclusive and efficient urban environment.
Toronto could adopt a similar philosophy. Revenue from congestion pricing could fund essential upgrades to TTC services, expand Bike Share, and create car-free zones on streets like King, Queen, Dundas, and College. These investments would support commuters and businesses while fostering a healthier, more vibrant city.
Early anecdotal reports suggest that congestion pricing has made a noticeable difference in reducing traffic and improving bus service reliability. Pedestrians report feeling safer, and some former critics of the policy have begun to reconsider their stance.
Of course, New York’s system is not without challenges. The policy has faced legal challenges and criticism from drivers and suburban commuters who feel unfairly targeted. Addressing equity concerns—such as providing exemptions or discounts for low-income drivers—will be critical for any city implementing congestion pricing, including Toronto.
The broader benefits
Congestion pricing is no silver bullet; implementing it requires overcoming significant political and social hurdles. Toronto’s car culture, equity concerns, and fragmented governance pose challenges. But political will, informed by clear data and bold vision, can transform obstacles into opportunities. Beyond revenue generation, congestion pricing offers a range of benefits that align with Toronto’s broader policy goals:
- Reduced traffic and travel times: By discouraging car trips during peak hours, congestion pricing can help reduce gridlock and improve travel times for everyone
- Safer streets and cleaner air: Fewer cars on the road means lower emissions and safer conditions for pedestrians and cyclists
- Improved public transit: Revenue from congestion charges can be reinvested in expanding and improving public transit, making it a more attractive alternative to driving
- Lower emissions: Reducing vehicle traffic in the downtown core aligns with Toronto’s TransformTO goal of achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2040
The key lies in communication and collaboration. Engaging with residents, businesses, and community organizations can build consensus around a shared vision for Toronto’s future.
What would it take?
Implementing congestion pricing in Toronto would require bold leadership and a robust public engagement strategy. The policy would need to be framed not as a punitive measure, but as an investment in the city’s future. Partnerships with transit agencies, advocacy groups, and community organizations could help build support, while exemptions or discounts for vulnerable populations could address equity concerns.
As we look to the future, congestion pricing presents an opportunity for Toronto to take meaningful action on climate change, improve quality of life, and ensure the city’s long-term financial sustainability. With the 2026 municipal elections not far off, now might be the time to put this issue back on the table and start a new conversation about what’s possible for Toronto.
